Long Term Implications for Ireland after Scottish Referendum: Dr; John Coulter

Impact of Scottish Referendum on Ireland

 

The legendary giants of Irish Unionism, Edward Carson and James Craig and even the late Ian Paisley, must be spinning in their graves with laughter at the thought of the modern pro-Unionist family embracing home rule.

Scottish nationalists may have lost the independence vote, but the result – if the Westminster establishment can be trusted to keep its promises – means that Irish-style home rule will be given to the Scottish Parliament.

And if London grants the Scots home rule, Stormont and Cardiff are already in the queue to demand similar tax-raising powers for the Northern Ireland and Welsh assemblies.

But in Ireland another series of political ghosts have been awakened by the clamour over Scottish independence – namely, the spectres of Irish and Ulster independence.

Sinn Fein is already sounding the jungle drums for a border poll, even though the party is fighting hard to maintain the struggling Stormont parliament, which is teetering on the brink of collapse yet again because of welfare reform.

With massive austerity cuts on the horizon for Stormont, similar to those which were needed in the Republic following the multi-million euro bailout, no Northern Ireland party wants to shoulder the blame of implementing welfare reform especially with House of Commons and Assembly polls in the next two years.

Ironically, Sinn Fein wants to maintain the partitionist parliament in Belfast, simply to prove to Southern Irish voters – who will have their own Dail general election next year – that it has the political maturity to be a minority partner in the next Dublin government.

Northern Unionists, and especially the DUP, might secretly like Stormont suspended. That would force David Cameron to implement the cuts under direct rule from Westminster.

As the largest Unionist party among an increasingly crowded field of pro-Union movements in Northern Ireland, the DUP would also be in a prime position to assist Cameron if he needed another coalition partner in the event of a hung parliament.

But when the original Stormont parliament was axed in 1972, direct rule condemned the state to an economic backwater for a generation as a series of Northern Ireland Office ministers implemented policies with no accountability to the Ulster electorate.

In the event of another suspension, Unionist plans to agree to power-sharing after London has implemented hard-hitting welfare reform could backfire.

Among the working-class loyalist community – the supposed backbone of the DUP’s support – the threat of a demand for an independent Ulster could return under the slogan: “If it’s good enough for the Scots to demand it, it’s good enough for the Northern Irish”.

This would not be the drastic Unilateral Declaration of Independence which Rhodesia’s Ian Smith imposed in 1965. In spite of Northern Ireland being supposedly one of the United Kingdom’s most fiercely loyal regions, there is a strong independence tradition in Ulster.

Faced with the prospect of home rule in 1912, Unionists formed the Ulster Volunteer Force militia which would have secured an independent Ulster state had it not been for the outbreak of the First World War in 1914. In the 1970s, the staunchly right-wing Unionist Vanguard movement and the then legal paramilitary Ulster Defence Association both pushed the concept of independence as an alternative to direct rule.

In the wake of the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement, which gave the Irish Republic its first major say in the running of Ulster since partition, the independence lobby raised its head again with hardline right-wing loyalist organisations, such as the Ulster Clubs movement and Ulster Movement for Self-Determination. But independence for either Ulster or Ireland has always been an aspirational notion rather than a realistic solution.

Loyalists would need a major super power to bankroll an independent six-county state. Independence was a non-starter until the Yes camp took 45 per cent in the Scottish referendum.

One thing is certain: there are huge political changes coming to Ireland in the next two years as a new tartan tide ripples its way across the British Isles.

 

About John Coulter
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Uncharted Waters: We Are A People: William Ennis

William Ennis is a mature student and an East Belfast based Progressive Unionist Party activist.

Uncharted waters:  We are a people

 

As Barak Obama claimed victory to become US president many cameras caught one particular figure in the crowd.  Rev Jessie Jackson was stood in an extremely emotional state, the kind where the tears flow in ceaseless streams and dignity is quite happily abandoned.  He had been present when Martin Luther King had been murdered and now he was bearing witness to the first black presidency.  In an interview thereafter he explained that he knew an African American president had always been a possibility, but that black votes alone would not be enough to do it, white Americans would need to be convinced they had nothing to fear from a black president.

*  *  *

I bought my first copy of uncharted waters in 2004.  At that time I had opinions which I would spray in the direction of anyone who would care to listen, but they were blunt and merely held rather than formed.  I had not been a great fan of Ervine.  Throughout my teens I didn’t care what the question was, Paisley was the answer.  When I first bought the book, having noticed it had been written by an old school teacher of mine, I had no idea the battering it would deliver to my know-it-all stubborn little world.  The affect the book had on me is rivalled only by that of the long walk to freedom (Nelson Mandela), and the principles of Loyalism (Billy Mitchell), and it remains a cherished possession and source of reference to this day.

The Book, by Henry Sinnerton, charts from Ervine’s childhood through his adolescence and into adulthood.  Through his initial resistance to paramilitarism, to when he did indeed join the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF).  Through his experience of the Long Kesh prison camp culminating in his post prison devotion to the politics of building peace against all odds.

But this biography told me of more than just its primary subject.  David’s wife Jeanette endured a lonely but brave battle to build a life during her husband’s incarceration with a young child to care for.  Her story in itself would be worthy of print.  In the chapter Parallel sentences the degree to which a prisoner’s sentence was not served by the prisoner alone is explored frankly and in many places Jeanette’s story would bring tears to a stone.  This is something I, as a civilian Loyalist, had not truly appreciated.

The book propels itself on how fresh Ervine’s Unionism really was as it challenged many of Loyalism’s sacred assertions.  In the chapter entitled life in Long Kesh Sinnerton relay’s Ervine’s account of the debates stoked by Gusty Spence.

“‘How dare we think we know everything about everything?  We are the people?  No, we are a people.’

Spence, by affording his men opportunities to consider different perspectives, was encouraging them to question their inherited political beliefs.”

Sinnerton’s unveiling of this Long Kesh process unpacks the political journey of men such as Ervine, Hutchinson and others.  A process which, it becomes clear through the quoted chapter and the following chapter’s the Spence regime, and Spence University, was to be one focused on self discovery.

The penny drops time and time again as one reads of this phase of Ervine’s life because passages become strangely familiar.  Familiar in that Ervine’s determination and open-minded understanding of a given situation was to present itself often in the later party-leader phase of his life as he time and again held the peace-process together despite the temper tantrums and self interested politicking of other parties.  So obvious was the making of the man in Spence University.

The book also makes clear through Ervine’s analysis the challenges faced by progressive unionists with the political battle to be fought essentially on two fronts, against Republicanism’s desire to break the Union, and against the interest of self preservation habitually displayed by the DUP and UUP which Ervine considered to be at odds with what was best for the working class.

“Spence used his input to expose the deficiencies of Ulster Unionism, which had opposed every piece of enlightened legislation, like the National Health Service and family allowances…”

Sinnerton’s book, which I had only bought because I recognised the name of its author, released me from the dull mindset of paislyite reactionary Unionism.  It made me feel a complete and utter fool for having voted against the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) six years earlier.  It exposed me to a Unionism I could relate to. It caused me to return to the book shelves and have a closer look at other political leaders of whom I had been weary, such as Mandela.  It caused me, for the first time, to attach value to education.  It caused me, (in tandem with the long walk to freedom) to go back to school and put right how little I had achieved the first time round.  It caused me to reject ‘but that’s what themuns say’ as a viable argument.  It caused me to start asking questions about education, housing, how well society treats the disabled, poor wages, access to good health-care, building bridges with the Catholic community, building bridges with Northern Ireland’s newly arrived communities.

It caused me to join the PUP.  It caused me to read the principles of Loyalism.

It caused me to be able to agree with an Irish Nationalist without questioning my Unionism.  It caused me to stop buying into the nonsense theory that one must choose between Ulster Loyalism and British Unionism.  It caused me to realise that, as David Ervine once said…

“Republicanism isn’t contagious”

It caused me to join a lobby group within the PUP to campaign for LGBT rights.  It caused me to march against racism, as well as for the preservation of Loyalist traditions.  It causes me to commend Irish nationalists at Stormont for their current committed stance against welfare cuts.

It caused me to think for myself.

*  *  *

Jackson knew that to have the impact needed to exact the change which was required a black candidate would need to appeal to more than just black voters.

Those who will follow in the political footsteps of Ervine’s generation will arrive at a juncture.  The PUP has a proud and undeniable loyalist strand to our party’s history and culture.  Non-Loyalist voters most probably find this off-putting.  I firmly believe that non-Loyalists have nothing to fear from genuine Loyalism.  However, merely saying so isn’t enough.

We shouldn’t become any less Loyalist; after all, it’s who we are.  But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t accept the responsibility of abating the fears of those who are distrustful of our Loyalism.  With the growth of the real politick; this is a challenge we must meet.

As far as challenges go, we’ve overcome worse.

William Ennis

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English Elite Cannot be Trusted:Be Wary of Home Rule Vow: Dr. John Coulter

Be Wary of Home Rule Vow

 

The English Establishment can’t be trusted so the Scots, Welsh and Irish north and south should band together and issue a Unilateral Declaration of Independence if Cameron doesn’t cough up his Home Rule promises.

Next year marks the 50th anniversary of Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith declaring UDI from Britain in November 1965 in what has become modern-day Zimbabwe in Africa.

The 45 per cent of Scots who voted for independence should not be viewed as a defeat, but the first stage in a political process which will undoubtedly lead to real Home Rule for many regions of the British Isles.

Sounds good on paper, but in reality can we really trust the ‘Little Englanders’ who comprise the Westminster Establishment to keep their promises on greater powers for the regional assemblies in Edinburgh, Stormont and Cardiff?

History has not been kind to those who were foolish enough to take these ‘Little Englander’ cliques at their word.

In the 1920s, the Anglo-Irish Treaty did not bring independence – it brought partition and sparked a bloody civil war which saw more IRA men executed by their fellow Free State republicans than were killed by the notorious Tans.

Earlier in 1912, the English had promised Irish Home Rule, but used the excuse of the Great War to get tens of thousands of nationalists slaughtered in the bloody trenches of the Western Front.

Unionists have fared no better with English promises. It was the English Establishment which axed the original Stormont in 1972, two years after this same clique had chopped the B Specials, often viewed as the pride of the Unionist military machine in Ireland.

The Ulster Defence Regiment and RUC were to follow suit.

Former premier Maggie Thatcher was in secret talks with the Provos while at the same time trying to convince Unionists she was their firm friend with her notorious ‘Out, out, out’ speech.

I recall an evening meal with a very senior Unionist in the 1980s who boasted about his great relationship with Maggie. Then she dumped the Anglo-Irish Agreement on him which gave the Republic its first say in Northern affairs since partition. Talk about a kick in the nuts!

The majority of Northern voters approved the Good Friday Agreement with a resounding Yes vote. If there was a re-run today, many Unionists would now vote No.

With Stormont on the brink of meltdown, would the DUP under Paisley senior have signed the St Andrews agreement in 2006?

If Sinn Fein has got such a good deal on policing for the nationalist community, why is there such a dangerous dissident republican movement?

It is becoming clear that as the end of this decade nears, Westminster’s attitude is rapidly becoming – England for the English and the rest can piss off!

If Unionists want Westminster to take them seriously about a stepping up their campaign over parades and the past, then Ulster Independence must be put back on the agenda.

There’s no way that Cameron can financially afford to grant the Scots those ludicrous Home Rule promises and not have a fresh civil war in England.

When the Scots realise they have been duped, that 45 per cent will increase to the much-needed 51 per cent who want independence.

In the meantime, I am today formally launching my National Front for the Liberation of Scotland (NFLS) pressure group to get that vital 6 per cent.

Stormont needs to go a step further – if the English pays for welfare reform, the North will implement Home Rule. If the English don’t foot the bill for welfare reform, then Robbo must take his place alongside legendary leaders Carson and Craig and declare UDI for the North.

If my NFLS can swing independence for Scotland, Ireland is only a stepping stone away. Independence for Stormont is by far a much better solution than the vastly watered down Home Rule currently on offer from the English Establishment.

This article first appeared in The Irish Daily Star

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Home Rule For Ireland On The Way: Dr. John Coulter

Home Rule for Ireland is now only months away.

   With the Scots voting to stay in the Union, Brit Prime Minister Dave Cameron will have to cough up all the cash concessions he promised them if they gave the two fingers to Big Alex Salmond’s independence campaign.

Let’s face reality, if the SNP had won, like Ireland, there would have been partition in Scotland with parts of the staunchly Scottish Presbyterian Highlands and Islands wanting to remain in the UK.

And in spite of the Yes defeat, Irish nationalists will benefit. The referendum debate has boosted the campaign for another border poll, especially as the – albeit slow – economic recovery continues in the Republic.

Likewise, Cameron cannot – in the teeth of this No victory – divest new and far-reaching tax powers to the Scottish Parliament and not give the same powers to a Northern Assembly, even if the latter is on the brink of collapse over expected hard-hitting welfare reform cuts.

If Cameron’s Home Rule package is good enough for the Scots, it should also be good enough for the Northern Irish parties. It could well be the deal breaker which keeps the DUP and Sinn Fein from forcing a collapse of Stormont and the return of Direct Rule from Westminster to the North.

Perhaps this is what DUP Northern First Minister Peter Robinson wants? After all, with Westminster, Dail and Stormont elections on the horizons in the next two years, what party wants to be blamed for the welfare reform cuts?

A Scottish-style Home Rule package for Stormont would also boost the cross-border bodies and the British-Irish institutions, effectively rubbing out the Irish border and creating a Dail/Stormont Home Rule political settlement in Ireland.

Sinn Fein’s real aim is to become a minority government partner in the next Dail with either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael as the senior partner.

To achieve this, it must prove to the Southern electorate that Sinn Fein is merely more than a Hard Left, anti-austerity party.

Keeping Stormont afloat against the wishes of the DUP would be one way that Sinn Fein could prove that it is politically mature enough to warrant the trust of the Southern voters.

The DUP seems determined to sink Stormont and impose Direct Rule because it knows the Shinners won’t take their Commons seats.

Irish Home Rule using the cross-border bodies would considerably strengthen Sinn Fein’s hand at establishing an all-island political structure.

The Achilles Heel in the whole process is that the narrowness of the No victory in Scotland might scare Northern Unionists into creating an electoral pact.

What happens if Unionists start using the Home Rule cross-border bodies to nudge the Republic into a Commonwealth coalition?

Sinn Fein needs to box very clever in the coming months. The key hurdle republicans must clear is – can Sinn Fein persuade the Brits to implement welfare reform, whilst keeping Stormont at the same time?

A huge pitfall for Sinn Fein is that if Stormont is suspended, when it is re-instated the Irish Home Rule package will be overtly Unionist, giving the DUP an effective voice in the running of the South.

Now that Scotland is still in the Union, could Northern Unionists plot to get the South back in a new Union? Don’t titter, Irish politics is the art of the impossible!

This article first appeared in the Irish Daily Star on 22nd September 2014

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Shinners Have Scot to Act Fast: DUP Stance puts Stormont at Risk: Dr. John Coulter

The Shinners must save Stormont otherwise they risk being backed into a blind alley by Robbo’s Dupers.

   It’s somewhat ironic that Sinn Fein must save the partitionist Northern Assembly, a parliament which the Shinners’ military wing, the IRA, tried for decades to destroy.

Sinn Fein has also been strangely quiet about the Scottish independence vote probably because it knows a Yes vote will not lead inevitably to an all-island republic.

Secretly, Sinn Fein must be hoping for a slender victory for the Unionist No camp and the benefits which the Scottish Parliament will acquire if Scotland votes to remain in the Union.

Robbo is taking a leaf out of newly-crowned world champion Carl Frampton and is boxing clever over the Assembly’s future.

Robbo’s claim Stormont is not fit for purpose is a very unsubtle hint to the Brits to suspend the Assembly.

This will force the Brits to implement the drastic welfare reform cuts, after which the DUP will campaign for the restoration of the Assembly – complete with new Scottish-style powers, following a snap Stormont poll which will seal victory for the DUP.

Then again, if the Scots vote to go it alone, does this mean a large slice of the billions of pounds which Westminster gives Scotland annually could be divided between Stormont and the cross-border bodies?

After all, given that the vast majority of Scottish Commons MPs come from Labour and the Scottish nationalists, a Yes victory could virtually guarantee a Tory Government at Westminster for years to come.

And given, too, the Shinners don’t take their Commons seats, this places Robbo’s DUP in a prime spot to cut a deal with Brit Premier Dave Cameron to become part of the next Tory coalition Government.

In the days of majority Unionist rule in the North, the UUP had a seat at the Brits’ Cabinet table in London.

But the election-battered UUP has no Commons seats. If the DUP can get Stormont suspended, the power base shifts to Westminster where the DUP has eight MPs – enough to tip the balance in a hung parliament.

Unionist voters would flock to the DUP in their tens of thousands if Robbo’s spin doctors push the line that a vote for the DUP will mean a Cabinet seat. That would also spell the death knell for the UUP.

The Scottish vote, too, is on such a knife-edge that the Old Firm factor will decide the outcome in terms of a Yes/No victory.

The Yes camp has been stressing the millions which will come for Scotland from North Sea oil.

Even if Scotland votes Yes, expect Cameron’s Brits to pull a flanker and try to get the oil-rich Shetland islands to re-join a new Union in the same way the Brits maintain their rule in Gibraltar and the Falklands.

Cameron also has the problem with these new power promises to keep the Scots in the Union. What about all the English regions which want their own federal parliament?

What about additional powers for the Welsh Assembly? A slender No victory will almost certainly guarantee Home Rule for Bonnie Scotland.

And if the Scots secure Home Rule, then the North must get Home Rule – provided there is an Assembly to administer that new found Home Rule status.

That’s why it’s imperative the Shinners outflank Robbo and the DUP and keep the Assembly functioning.

Sinn Fein must cut a deal for additional powers for the current cross-border bodies. Home Rule at Stormont will only work for Sinn Fein if it can become the largest Assembly party after the next Stormont poll.

That scenario will only come about if the Shinners avoid Robbo’s trap of a suspended Assembly.

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The ACT Initiative – Greater Shankill