Monthly Archives: September 2014

Be Wary of Home Rule Vow

The English Establishment can’t be trusted so the Scots, Welsh and Irish north and south should band together and issue a Unilateral Declaration of Independence if Cameron doesn’t cough up his Home Rule promises.

Next year marks the 50^th anniversary of Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith declaring UDI from Britain in November 1965 in what has become modern-day Zimbabwe in Africa.

The 45 per cent of Scots who voted for independence should not be viewed as a defeat, but the first stage in a political process which will undoubtedly lead to real Home Rule for many regions of the British Isles.

Sounds good on paper, but in reality can we really trust the ‘Little Englanders’ who comprise the Westminster Establishment to keep their promises on greater powers for the regional assemblies in Edinburgh, Stormont and Cardiff?

History has not been kind to those who were foolish enough to take these ‘Little Englander’ cliques at their word.

In the 1920s, the Anglo-Irish Treaty did not bring independence – it brought partition and sparked a bloody civil war which saw more IRA men executed by their fellow Free State republicans than were killed by the notorious Tans.

Earlier in 1912, the English had promised Irish Home Rule, but used the excuse of the Great War to get tens of thousands of nationalists slaughtered in the bloody trenches of the Western Front.

Unionists have fared no better with English promises. It was the English Establishment which axed the original Stormont in 1972, two years after this same clique had chopped the B Specials, often viewed as the pride of the Unionist military machine in Ireland.

The Ulster Defence Regiment and RUC were to follow suit.

Former premier Maggie Thatcher was in secret talks with the Provos while at the same time trying to convince Unionists she was their firm friend with her notorious ‘Out, out, out’ speech.

I recall an evening meal with a very senior Unionist in the 1980s who boasted about his great relationship with Maggie. Then she dumped the Anglo-Irish Agreement on him which gave the Republic its first say in Northern affairs since partition. Talk about a kick in the nuts!

The majority of Northern voters approved the Good Friday Agreement with a resounding Yes vote. If there was a re-run today, many Unionists would now vote No.

With Stormont on the brink of meltdown, would the DUP under Paisley senior have signed the St Andrews agreement in 2006?

If Sinn Fein has got such a good deal on policing for the nationalist community, why is there such a dangerous dissident republican movement?

It is becoming clear that as the end of this decade nears, Westminster’s attitude is rapidly becoming – England for the English and the rest can piss off!

If Unionists want Westminster to take them seriously about a stepping up their campaign over parades and the past, then Ulster Independence must be put back on the agenda.

There’s no way that Cameron can financially afford to grant the Scots those ludicrous Home Rule promises and not have a fresh civil war in England.

When the Scots realise they have been duped, that 45 per cent will increase to the much-needed 51 per cent who want independence.

In the meantime, I am today formally launching my National Front for the Liberation of Scotland (NFLS) pressure group to get that vital 6 per cent.

Stormont needs to go a step further – if the English pays for welfare reform, the North will implement Home Rule. If the English don’t foot the bill for welfare reform, then Robbo must take his place alongside legendary leaders Carson and Craig and declare UDI for the North.

If my NFLS can swing independence for Scotland, Ireland is only a stepping stone away. Independence for Stormont is by far a much better solution than the vastly watered down Home Rule currently on offer from the English Establishment.

This article first appeared in The Irish Daily Star

Home Rule for Ireland is now only months away.

   With the Scots voting to stay in the Union, Brit Prime Minister Dave Cameron will have to cough up all the cash concessions he promised them if they gave the two fingers to Big Alex Salmond’s independence campaign.

Let’s face reality, if the SNP had won, like Ireland, there would have been partition in Scotland with parts of the staunchly Scottish Presbyterian Highlands and Islands wanting to remain in the UK.

And in spite of the Yes defeat, Irish nationalists will benefit. The referendum debate has boosted the campaign for another border poll, especially as the – albeit slow – economic recovery continues in the Republic.

Likewise, Cameron cannot – in the teeth of this No victory – divest new and far-reaching tax powers to the Scottish Parliament and not give the same powers to a Northern Assembly, even if the latter is on the brink of collapse over expected hard-hitting welfare reform cuts.

If Cameron’s Home Rule package is good enough for the Scots, it should also be good enough for the Northern Irish parties. It could well be the deal breaker which keeps the DUP and Sinn Fein from forcing a collapse of Stormont and the return of Direct Rule from Westminster to the North.

Perhaps this is what DUP Northern First Minister Peter Robinson wants? After all, with Westminster, Dail and Stormont elections on the horizons in the next two years, what party wants to be blamed for the welfare reform cuts?

A Scottish-style Home Rule package for Stormont would also boost the cross-border bodies and the British-Irish institutions, effectively rubbing out the Irish border and creating a Dail/Stormont Home Rule political settlement in Ireland.

Sinn Fein’s real aim is to become a minority government partner in the next Dail with either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael as the senior partner.

To achieve this, it must prove to the Southern electorate that Sinn Fein is merely more than a Hard Left, anti-austerity party.

Keeping Stormont afloat against the wishes of the DUP would be one way that Sinn Fein could prove that it is politically mature enough to warrant the trust of the Southern voters.

The DUP seems determined to sink Stormont and impose Direct Rule because it knows the Shinners won’t take their Commons seats.

Irish Home Rule using the cross-border bodies would considerably strengthen Sinn Fein’s hand at establishing an all-island political structure.

The Achilles Heel in the whole process is that the narrowness of the No victory in Scotland might scare Northern Unionists into creating an electoral pact.

What happens if Unionists start using the Home Rule cross-border bodies to nudge the Republic into a Commonwealth coalition?

Sinn Fein needs to box very clever in the coming months. The key hurdle republicans must clear is – can Sinn Fein persuade the Brits to implement welfare reform, whilst keeping Stormont at the same time?

A huge pitfall for Sinn Fein is that if Stormont is suspended, when it is re-instated the Irish Home Rule package will be overtly Unionist, giving the DUP an effective voice in the running of the South.

Now that Scotland is still in the Union, could Northern Unionists plot to get the South back in a new Union? Don’t titter, Irish politics is the art of the impossible!

This article first appeared in the Irish Daily Star on 22nd September 2014

The Shinners must save Stormont otherwise they risk being backed into a blind alley by Robbo’s Dupers.

   It’s somewhat ironic that Sinn Fein must save the partitionist Northern Assembly, a parliament which the Shinners’ military wing, the IRA, tried for decades to destroy.

Sinn Fein has also been strangely quiet about the Scottish independence vote probably because it knows a Yes vote will not lead inevitably to an all-island republic.

Secretly, Sinn Fein must be hoping for a slender victory for the Unionist No camp and the benefits which the Scottish Parliament will acquire if Scotland votes to remain in the Union.

Robbo is taking a leaf out of newly-crowned world champion Carl Frampton and is boxing clever over the Assembly’s future.

Robbo’s claim Stormont is not fit for purpose is a very unsubtle hint to the Brits to suspend the Assembly.

This will force the Brits to implement the drastic welfare reform cuts, after which the DUP will campaign for the restoration of the Assembly – complete with new Scottish-style powers, following a snap Stormont poll which will seal victory for the DUP.

Then again, if the Scots vote to go it alone, does this mean a large slice of the billions of pounds which Westminster gives Scotland annually could be divided between Stormont and the cross-border bodies?

After all, given that the vast majority of Scottish Commons MPs come from Labour and the Scottish nationalists, a Yes victory could virtually guarantee a Tory Government at Westminster for years to come.

And given, too, the Shinners don’t take their Commons seats, this places Robbo’s DUP in a prime spot to cut a deal with Brit Premier Dave Cameron to become part of the next Tory coalition Government.

In the days of majority Unionist rule in the North, the UUP had a seat at the Brits’ Cabinet table in London.

But the election-battered UUP has no Commons seats. If the DUP can get Stormont suspended, the power base shifts to Westminster where the DUP has eight MPs – enough to tip the balance in a hung parliament.

Unionist voters would flock to the DUP in their tens of thousands if Robbo’s spin doctors push the line that a vote for the DUP will mean a Cabinet seat. That would also spell the death knell for the UUP.

The Scottish vote, too, is on such a knife-edge that the Old Firm factor will decide the outcome in terms of a Yes/No victory.

The Yes camp has been stressing the millions which will come for Scotland from North Sea oil.

Even if Scotland votes Yes, expect Cameron’s Brits to pull a flanker and try to get the oil-rich Shetland islands to re-join a new Union in the same way the Brits maintain their rule in Gibraltar and the Falklands.

Cameron also has the problem with these new power promises to keep the Scots in the Union. What about all the English regions which want their own federal parliament?

What about additional powers for the Welsh Assembly? A slender No victory will almost certainly guarantee Home Rule for Bonnie Scotland.

And if the Scots secure Home Rule, then the North must get Home Rule – provided there is an Assembly to administer that new found Home Rule status.

That’s why it’s imperative the Shinners outflank Robbo and the DUP and keep the Assembly functioning.

Sinn Fein must cut a deal for additional powers for the current cross-border bodies. Home Rule at Stormont will only work for Sinn Fein if it can become the largest Assembly party after the next Stormont poll.

That scenario will only come about if the Shinners avoid Robbo’s trap of a suspended Assembly.